Proem

HAPPY NEW YEAR! This year 2016 is full of many challenges for the Philippines and the Filipinos.  It is an election year where we elect new political leaders from the President to the Municipal Councilors.

The is also the challenge of the ASEAN integration.  There is also a challenge of Atmospheric change, which is wrongly labeled as “Climate Change”.  It is predicted that there will be a drought to be caused by the “El Niño” phenomenon.

The is also a challenge of the implementation of Senior High School as mandated by the K + 12 Law.  DepEd authorities say that they are ready but if you will investigate carefully everything is still in confusion.

It is said that a pessimist always look at the negative side of the problem while an optimist will look at the positive side and the opportunities caused by the problem.

The Election

This year we will elect a new President and Vice President.  We could not tell what the new President will do.  From experience we know that the present President and the previous President put their predecessors in jail.

In the Senatorial and local level, some officials will be reelected and some will be thrown out of office.  In some cases it will be a boon and in some it will be a bane.

One thing is certain; the coming campaign period will be one big circus.

The ASEAN Integration

This year will be the start of the so called ASEAN Integration.  It means that within the ten (10) members of ASEAN there will no more restrictions.  Products from one member country can be sold in another without tariff or taxes.  A professional from one country can practice his profession in another country.

So far the Philippines can only identify that our agricultural sector is weak.  Our economy is said to be strong because it is measured in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  GDP measures the earnings of Filipinos anywhere in the world and our overseas workers are a great factor for the GDP.

During the time of Pres. Carlos P. Garcia the economy was measured in GNP.  It is a measure of the earnings of everybody, including foreigners, within the Philippines.  It was second only to Japan.

Nowadays, GNP is labeled as “internal growth” and it is admitted that it is practically zero.

It is only an optimist who will be happy due our disadvantage in GNP.  It is a great challenge to the next batch of leaders how to take advantage of ASEAN Integration.

Atmospheric Change

Recently there was and accord or agreement signed in Paris, France, that the climate change will be limited in rise until year 2050 to 2⁰C of pre-industrial revolution temperature level.

The rich and developed countries promise to do their part and compensate the countries that will suffer due to climate change.  It is a tricky situation and I smell a rat in the agreement.

The Climate Change is comparable to the fever of a sick person.  The fever is just the manifestation of the actual disease.  The fever can be treated, but if the actual disease, which is the Atmospheric Change is not treated, the fever will return.

Since the mention of Atmospheric Change is very vague, the rich countries can still continue polluting the atmosphere or stratosphere with airplane exhausts from fossil fuels.

There is a good solution to the problem – make the Philippines a rich country; but how can we become rich?  So far as I know, President P-Noy is solving the problem by giving money to the poor in his Pangtawid Pang Pamilya Program (PPPP).

Bangsa Moro Law

Due to the promise of the passage of the Bangsa Moro Basic Law (BBL), the Mindanao Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) is not engaging the government military forces in actual warfare.  What will happen if the BBL will be passed into law?  That is a big challenge to the next administration.

Comment

This year 2016, so many challenges are in the offing in which everybody seems to be unprepared what to do.

Our economy is growing at 6%, which is supposed to be strong.  However, upon analysis, the growth is due to 4% from OFW remittances, and 2% from Call Centers.  There is 0% growth from agriculture where 30% of the workers are employed.  There is also no growth from the industries.  In other words there is zero GNP or internal growth.

Our money value is artificially pegged at P47 to $1.  This will encourage our OFWs to remit home their dollars.  We are not told that this situation will encourage inflation by over printing of new money.

Supposing $1 Billion is sent home by the OFWs, the dollars are not used in the Philippines.  The government will print new P47 Billion to answer for the $1 Billion and oversupply of money will occur.  Banks are told to hold the circulation of the money that is way you are lucky if you will get 1% interest in your bank deposit.

The best trick to remove the oversupply of printed money is to demonetize.  You are told that your old paper money will no longer be honored after 2015.  It will enable the Central Bank to remove the oversupply of printed money and the equivalent value will be a matter of accounting entries minus the equivalent printed money.

What is done is a sure formula for no internal growth. The local manufacturers will be hard put where to obtain capital at a cost that can produce products competitive to other ASEAN countries.

Be that as it may, the optimist can always find ways and means to profit in a problematic situation.  Now that you understand the situation, may plans how to defeat the system. (By Jes B. Tirol)